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Texas Hold'em Odds and Probability

If you're a serious poker player, you probably know all about the various probabilities involved in playing a game of Poker but If you're just starting out, it could be helpful to go over some of the numbers that get tossed around so you can keep them in mind during your play. If you haven't tried playing online before, why not pick up casino bonus from Betfair and give it a go?

The first thing you need to bear in mind is the probabilities of getting any one hand. Let's be honest, you aren't going to be sitting at the table expecting pocket aces every hand, but did you know the odds of getting any one hand is about 0.45%? Yep, a little under half a percent that any given hand will turn up. There are also a fair selection of good hands (pair of aces, pair of kings, ace king suited) and you can expect these to pop up slightly more frequently 1 in 50 or there abouts. We still wouldn't advise waiting for the best of the best starting hands, you're better off playing most hands to the flop unless you have something truly terrible like a 2 and a 7 off suit. Having said that, it's important to remember that the odds of any given hand being 0.45% also applies to your opponents but with the addition that you know there are two cards (seven by the end of the river) that they don't have and it's worth remembering this when considering whether or not they're bluffing.

So, with knowledge of the odds of getting a certain starting hand, let's moveon to the probabilities of getting a certain set. When it comes to certain hands, there's a pretty steep bell curve in terms of probability. You actually have a significantly higher chance of getting a pair then you do of not getting one, in fact the odds of getting two pair is actually higher than the odds of just being left with high card. The probabilities, approximately, are 4.74:1 for no pair, 1.28:1 for one pair and 3.26:1 for two pair. This is down to how the cards get distributed but while the numbers stay fairly low, they spike sharply as you get towards the stronger hand end of the scale. The odds of getting four of a kind is about 594:1, a straight flush (not royal) is about 3,590:1 and a Royal Flush by itself is an incredible 30,939:1! While these are all estimates, it gives you a good indication of how unlikely certain card combos are to crop up and to plan accordingly.

With those out of the way, let's get into some of the other stats that it's worth knowing about. For starters, if you're hoping to land a pocket pair then you're in luck. You should be getting dealt one every seventeen hands, approximately, and the gain of having the pocket pairs helps start you in a superior position pre-flop (might be a good time to consider raising). When it comes to getting a flush though, the odds are a little more unusual. If you start with two cards of the same suit, the odds of getting a flush by the flop is miniscule (about 118 to 1). Luckily though, the odds of getting a flush by the river are about 15 to 1 so it's not terrifically unlikely once you have the two starting cards (though the odds of one overall is about 32:1).





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